Predicting sovereign debt crises: Who runs first? | The Economist

Predicting sovereign debt crises: Who runs first? | The Economist: "THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) often tells governments that they borrow too much. Now they warn that some governments are borrowing from the wrong people. As they put it, “our new research shows that advanced economies’ exposure to refinancing risk and changes in government borrowing costs depend mainly on who is holding the bonds.” Their findings are interesting but there may be less here than meets the eye.

The researchers divide bondholders into three basic groups: non-banks (pension funds, insurance companies, individuals, etc.), banks, and central banks. Each of these is then subdivided into foreign and domestic holders and assigned risk scores. The paper explains the methodology in more detail:"

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